As 2026 begins, the pressure shaping small business decisions is changing.
Inflation dominated conversations for much of the last two years. Pricing pressure has not disappeared, but it is no longer the issue driving most planning decisions. More business owners are now focused on the uncertainty surrounding taxes, policy, and future costs. That shift matters because uncertainty affects how owners plan.
What’s Changing for Small Business Owners
The December 2025 Small Business Economic Trends report from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reflects this shift. Taxes moved to the top of the list of owner concerns, while inflation declined as the leading issue. At the same time, owners are still signaling cost pressure through planned price increases and continued compensation gains. Planning becomes harder when costs and rules are less predictable.
The same report shows a meaningful decline in overall uncertainty toward the end of 2025. That improvement is welcome, but uncertainty remains elevated relative to historical norms. Many owners are making decisions without clear visibility into how policies, taxes, or costs may change in the months ahead.
Inflation Hasn’t Disappeared, but It’s Not Driving Decisions
Inflation remains part of the operating reality for small businesses. A significant share of owners continue to raise prices and compensation. What has changed is how those pressures are influencing decisions.
Rather than reacting to rapid price increases, many owners are slowing down decisions, reassessing priorities, and focusing on what they can control. This reflects a shift from short-term reaction to longer-term planning under uncertainty.
Why Uncertainty Changes How You Plan
When uncertainty rises, planning looks different. Hiring, inventory, and capital spending decisions carry more risk when future costs and rules are unclear. In this environment, speed matters less than discipline.
Cash flow visibility, pricing flexibility, and capital readiness become more important than aggressive expansion. Decisions need to hold up under more than one scenario.
What This Means for 2026 Planning
This shift reinforces the importance of prioritization. As outlined in our 2026 small business priorities framework, separating near-term operational decisions from longer-term strategic planning helps reduce reactive decision-making when uncertainty rises.
Planning is the priority right now. Owners who stay focused on cash flow, margins, and readiness will be better positioned when conditions improve.
We help business owners stay lender-ready, improve operational stability, and position their companies for sustainable growth. If you are rethinking how to plan for 2026, let’s connect.